It has become a routine for social analytics platforms to give their own predictions for elections, super bowl, … and the Oscars. Indeed, we have been looking at some of the published predictions. While they are all plausible and well-founded, they follow different approaches:
1. Youtube: its leaderboard of most watched trailers indicates that Dunkirk might be a clear winner.
2. Hootsuite: a conversation analysis approach, by looking at the number of positive mentions across social and web, and nominated Dunkirk as a winner. They noted how the most discussed movies did not correlate with positivity score.
3. Sprout Social: published by Forbes, followed a similar conversational approach to HootSuite, just with a different outcome. While Call Me By Your Name received the most positive mentions, Lady Bird had the best ratio of positive/negative. They noted how their analysis might better represent people’s sentiment, instead of the voting Academy members’ opinions.
Winner: Call me by your name (or) Lady Bird.
4. What about Audiense?
a. By the number of followers in social media: taking a simple leaderboard/ranking approach, Dunkirk more than doubles the number of followers of the second nominated movie, Call me by your name. Not surprisingly, those are the two most followed movies by followers of @TheAcademy, in the same order.
b. Through Audiense Insights, we looked at the follower community of @TheAcademy in the USA, and let the platform work the magic by analysing the 100s of millions of connections among those people, to cluster them into differentiated segments we can isolate their Oscar “best picture” preferences.
One of the key segments was the “Film industry” with many of its members describing themselves as filmmaker, actress, director, producer. While one of the most followed movies was Phantom Thread, this segment looks to have a special affinity towards Lady Bird.
With that in mind, we went deeper and re-segmented the “Film industry”. By going deeper, we have uncovered even more niche communities of individuals, which could not have been achieved otherwise through traditional segmentation.
Some of the underlying communities included “Actors & Actresses”, “Broadway & Theatre” and “Screenwriters”.
- Actors & Actresses: Lady Bird, followed by Shape of water.
- Broadway & Theatre: Lady Bird, closely followed by Call me by your name.
- Screenwriters: they disagree with their acting colleagues, and would rather see 3 Billboards as a winner, followed by Get Out.
Are you now wondering about the other categories? Would like to have a round view of them for a campaign to one of those audiences?
Based on the above, it looks like Lady Bird has a good chance to win, but movies is a matter of personal taste and preference, and all the nominated movies are the winner for someone out there.
Suggest we uncork a good wine and cheese, and enjoy the Oscars (if we don’t fall sleep for those in Europe)!